Debate the Third

J: Well, the third and final Presidential debate is finally here, and this one has the potential to be interesting. Before you think I've lost my mind, let me explain.

The first two debates were hardly "debates" at all, they were two men speaking in talking points. That very well could be the case again tonight. But some part of me doubts that this will be the case. Senator McCain is trailing badly in national polls, and the state-by-state breakdowns show an even larger disparity. He needs an absolute slam-dunk victory in this debate- something that not only makes him look like the inevitable choice to be the next President, but also simultaneously knocks Senator Obama off the stage. Something huge, something remarkable. And that means he can't play it safe- he has to let it all hang out.

While it's possible that he could score a successful knockout blow, there is also danger in this approach- he could swing and miss so badly that he stops any momentum his campaign still retains. An error of that magnitude would be virtually impossible to recover from in 20 days... but taking that risk might be the only way Johnny Mac gets the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. There's the drama for tonight- will he try and win this debate, or the election?

The thing is, I can't see any potential attack he can make. Obama's campaign has been Ali's "rope-a-dope" in action. Let your opponent make some body blows, but protect the head. Then, in the later rounds, once your foe has spent all their energy, land the knockout if you can... but realize that winning on points still counts as a win. The Democratic primary drudged up all the dirt Obama has- and it's not much. If the Clintons can't find the skeletons in your closet, then there probably aren't any to be found.

McCain has hinted that he's going to mention William Ayres in this debate. I'm not convinced that this would be an intelligent move. First off, it could turn out like his choice of VP- while the base gets energized, independents simply aren't swayed by it. Second, and perhaps more importantly, if you're going to use an attack, you really shouldn't announce it ahead of time. To go back to the boxing analogy, you can't telegraph your punches. You're setting yourself up for a massive counter. A former president of the Harvard Law Review would probably eviscerate a comment like that on the spot, but with days to prepare, it could be flat-out brutal. If there is a mention of Ayres tonight, hold on... because you are about to see one of the greatest comeback remarks of the past few Presidential campaigns.

Tonight's drinking game rules are simple: For Obama, drink when he says "middle class". For McCain, drink when he studiously does not look at Obama. If you want to give your liver a thorough beating, add these: For Barack, add "failed policies", and for Johnny Mac, "My friends". But be careful- the "my friends" rule is guaranteeing yourself a massive hangover. You've been warned.

C. Thankfully J., the debate had nothing to do about yours and my diminished mental capapacity. Although that would place us firmly within the new Palin worship mongers club. She's been reduced to family huggy Ops with Downes Syndromers. I guess the whole Obama-U-Is-A-Arab-Muslim-Teerorist thing is off the table. It's manditory, we're going to have to get ourselves a collector yellow 'TRIG' tshirt to commemorate the Palin fiasco. It's good to know there is one voting block locked up for McCain-Palin.

ring ring... It's Jerry Springer, he's looking for a pregnant teenager whose mother is a VEEP candidate, the baby daddy has dropped out of high school to get a job in oil fields. awwwwww....

This is postgame analysis on my behalf, stupid neighbor turned off his router. The Pirate wifi Lifestyle has its drawbacks. The Debate , mind you I've read or seen zero spin due to the phrases 'middle class' and 'my friends', ended up in a draw. Yep, a draw. McCain's RedBull's wore off after a half an hour reducing him to an eye-popped twitchy mess. Obama babbled like tall guys do when they're forced to sit down. Unfortunately for Johnny Mac, he's a Republican. America opened up their 401K statements on or about October 10th. George W. Bush is a Republican. Punishment will be severe. McCain, highly animated, hates taxes and has a crush on a Man Plumber. Obama, if you squeezed him you'd get cucumber juice. Thank the Lord this was the Debate the Third. This was by far the most interesting and confrontational debate, Bob the Mod didn't step in, and both candidates were engaged maybe due to their proximity. Thankfully, neither expressed a flag-waving solution to the horrid crapfest that will be known as the Great Recession. My liver is grumpy.

Breaking news: Joe the Plumber is not a licensed plumber and he owes back taxes. Woopsy.

Poll Dancing

J: Well, American Research Group has released their latest polling data from South Carolina, and I'm surprised (but not shocked) to see what's going on in the Palmetto State.

The Republicans

The Democrats

Looking at the data, the painfully obvious conclusion to draw is that independents will be the key. McCain gets the biggest jump from this, while Obama pulls a virtually identical percentage from Democrats and independents.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say these polls are under-reporting for Ron Paul, as he will garner more than 1% of the vote. His supporters will get out and vote. Just because they're odd, doesn't mean they're not motivated.

I was surprised to see Edwards at 9%. I would have guessed far higher- 15% at a minimum. It will be interesting to see which way the "undecideds" break, although, quite frankly, if you haven't made up your mind two days before you vote, you're just not paying attention.

C: As I've stated previously, I don't know Jack Squat about the Palmetto State. Hell, I don't even know what a palmetto is, and no, I won't google it.

Now that I quantified my complete lack of perspective, here's a thought or two about the Low-Country Boil.

First, lesson learned from NH and MI concerning Independents, it's about turnout that makes them relevant. Now as I was schooled by my friend here, in SC one can register as anything day of primary. So I'm guessing the juice goes to Obama as the Mr. Excitement candidate. And John Edwards is going to be Mr. Pantload when his home state effectively ignores him.

Second, man o' man, South Carolina has read Nixon's Holy Book of Dirty Tricks and has written whole new chapters. Example: This week, McCain was called out as a traitor while imprisoned in N'Vietnam. I'd almost move there for six months every four years just to get the emails, mailers, TV and radio ads and the generic bile that is the poo in the political fan of South Carolina. Scorched Earth is SOP.

Third, I imagine Huckaboo is just going to ascend up to heaven on Saturday thereby skipping Super Tuesday. If his rhetoric gets more Goddish, it's either a lightning bolt to the chops for arrogance or move over Holy Ghost.

Fourth, Las Vegas is run by the screwheads. Caucuses in casinos? Nevada would be a dandy underground story to cover in the trenches.

Fifth, can one rent the RP blimp as a party zeppelin?

J: Here's all you need to know about South Carolina's Dirty Tricks and Rumors: Lee Atwater graduated from Newberry College in Newberry, SC,
and cut his teeth working for Strom Thurmond. I still mourn losing Lee in '91, just because it denied us Atwater vs. Carville in '92. Good lord, that campaign would have been epic.

C, I think we ought to look into renting the RP blimp. You, me, a dirigible, and a case of whiskey. I'll bet we'd give CNN an interview like they've never seen.

And a palmetto is a tree.

C: Lee Atwater also went to the Pat Buchanan's Graduate School of Shitflinging. And to Lee's credit, when he was burning someone down, he did it with a smile on his face. But the legend of LBJ and "pigfucker" is epic in its perfection. It set the stage for modern dirty double dealing from under the deck posioning the well tactics. And Rove doesn't count. He is and a was a thug, no appreciation for the artform.

We've absolutely have to gets our paws on that blimp. Or any blimp for that manner. Oh, the humanity!

Palmetto. Tree. Check.

C: Will the traditional Confederate Flag dustup have an effect on Saturday? There's a story in Rev. Moon's *ahem* "newspaper":

http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080118/NATION/116263890/1001