Two Very, Very Very Short Weeks

C. The polls start closing in 300 some odd hours. Minutes are ticking away on the longest, most expensive Presidential campaign in American history. (The famous "Seasons of Love"song from the Broadway show Rent should be the background music here.) Early voting is busting records with long lines where available. Absentee ballots are flooding in. The airwaves, radio waves, the internets, mailboxes, answering machines, doorknobs, front lawns, editorial boards and columns, all are flooded with the Red, White and Blue Blood that pumps through America's veins. Sit in a diner and odds are someone will stick a microphone in your face. Hell, it's almost as if people really cared about the outcome of an election and apathy is so 20th century.

Fourteen days out and the picture is looking a tad grim for Senator McCain and Celebrity Governor Palin. Drunken Politics loves Conventional Wisdom. And Conventional Wisdom is great for ratings. And Conventional Wisdom is trying real, real hard to pimp the horserace. Campaigns always tighten up toward Election Day, the Bradley Factor, 'Will the kids really vote?', the rehabilitation of 'The Happy Warrior', coverage of 'Battleground States' and Gaff-Hunters and Dirt Mongers are pouring over every word to find secrety subtext and hidden nuance and hysterical implication in any utterance from a sixth tier surrogate.

Simple fact(s): McCain and Palin are swimming outside the deep end rope. The polling numbers and trends are rolling them up. Palin is a national joke who still doesn't know what the duties of the Vice President involve and the Arizona Senator appears bi-polar. The RNC is pulling back money from the campaign to save congressional seats. The editorial boards, even classical GOP-friendly journalists, are collectively shaking their heads at a mis-managed, unhinged campaign. And General Colin Powell is driving a stake through the heart of a supposed great friend.

Senator Obama's team is trying to figure out how to blow the avalanche of money that flooded their coffers. Being positive and calm is working for some strange reason. New Voter registration for Democrats is through the roof. Trendlines, trendlines, trendlines. 401K is a dirty word. And a hunch that American voters are dismayed by the sneering lowest common denominator pitchfork crowd of drooling troglodytes that appear to be the new Republican Base. That whole Economy That GWB And Friends Ran Into The Ditch (ETGAFRITD) has a bit more traction the Guns, God and Gays for the moment. Maybe it is a James Carville-ism.

Johnny Mac and the Avon Lady are running out of October Surprise, time and money. And their spaghetti is not sticking to the wall. And Obama is going to see his sick Granny in Hawaii.

J: Well, C., I cant disagree with a thing you've said, so allow me to expand on a couple of things.

First off, there's the "horse race" aspect of the coverage. This could easily turn out to be a short-term gain, long-term loss for McCain. Johnny Mac's core base- the elderly and the "I love Jesus a whole lot" crowd- are going to vote. Period. Plagues would not keep these people away from the voting booth. The people Obama's campaign has newly registered? They might be tempted to stay at home on the 4th if they think that everything's decided. If it's projected to be close? They might think that their vote could be the deciding one, and figure that their time in line is worthwhile.

Then, there's the Powell issue. This is a bigger deal than it would seem at first glance. Much of McCain's ambition stems from his inability to follow in the footsteps of his father and grandfather, and pin on the four stars of a full Admiral. He separated from the Navy as a Captain, the equivalent to a US Army Colonel. It's still a very prestigious rank, but there is a vast difference between a Captain and an Admiral. Powell, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, held the most powerful office someone in uniform can attain. For him to come out and endorse Obama, while saying thinks like "This is a time for outreach", is a huge slap in the face of McCain. The essence of Powell's argument is that McCain approaches things from the level of a Captain- a man in charge of a single ship, while Obama looks at situations like a General or Admiral- where you have to consider a hell of a lot more factors. 

As far as the coverage on Election Night, there are two states that will tell the early tale- Virginia and North Carolina. If either of these goes to Obama, the electoral math becomes so prohibitively difficult for Sarah Palin's running mate that it would be safe to go ahead and crack open the bottle of Bourbon, 'cause it will be over. If I know that, the pundits have to know it. It will be entertaining to watch them attempt to not call the race for the next three hours.