The Conversation that Started it All

Well, you're here and you're reading. Here's why:

J: OK, so in our tragically shortened phone call last night, we were talking about the value of organization. At least on the GOP side, I think we saw that play out. We just made the mistake of believing Conventional Wisdom. CW said that Romney had the organization. But, really, where has the GOP's strength come from since the mid-80's?

The Evangelicals. They have been the ones working the hardest, while the NeoCons made out with the wins. The E's had to put up with it, or else their view of what it meant to be a Republican would have shattered. So, when they had a chance to vote for one of their own (and over a Mormon, no less- don't you know they're a cult?), well- they took it full-bore. 'Cause, dammit, ol' Mike the Preacher, well, he's a good guy. Why should we vote for Mitt or that sleazy guy from New York with three divorces? God intends to heart Huckabee. Fred polled third, 'cause a lot of non-Evangelical Iowans wanted to vote for a "real Conservative".

I know hindsight is 20/20 on this stuff, but I can't believe I hadn't thought it through. The question is: What now? Rove and Co. are not going to stand back and let the Evangelicals actually get a candidate, as it doesn't help their agenda. Problem is, if they go after Huck, they risk seriously fragmenting the party. The Democrats splintered over race, I think it would be appropriate if the GOP broke over Jeesus.

And Barack? I think the Dean team from '04 learned from its mistakes. Edwards has been in Iowa since, oh, December '04, and Hillary- there's no way she's taking advice from that bunch. So who's left? B-Rock. And I think he was more than happy to get in with that machine.

I love primary season. And we get to do this again in 4 days!

C: Geezus what a fuckstorm, I love it.

Alright, here's my game theory of bullshitology. Let's start with the Republitards. Chucklebee ain't gonna get squat out out of NH, I went to prep school in NH and the people there, even though they talk funny, are not morons or Mormons. And they despise all things Massachusuettes. Kinda like Texans view Mexicans.Or Florida Cubans and Haitians. Oregonians and Californians is the perfect comparison but I hope yo understand the distrusting sneer and bile that comes out with 'Romney' when a NH'erite says 'Romney'. Has nothing to do with Mormon. Evangelicals ain't got shit for game up in the Granite State. So, McCain wins. South Carolina I'll leave to your knowledge. But I'll hedge with Fuckabee in SC.

And on the other side of corporate politics, the Democrats muddlefuck is easy in NH. Obama wins. People are lining up to hear him speak at shitty junior high schools in bumfart NH. Why I don't know, I still don't buy the Second Coming of RFK. But Hilary sounds like she's just about to scold you for not putting your socks in the hamper when I hear her public appearances. Edwards is toast unless he pulls SC out of his hat. Iowa was a three-way tie if you pull Independents out of the numbers, but the media is hailing Borat Hussein as the African Christ. Regardless, February 5th Hilary's bankroll may blow a hole in Obama's boat. And the Swiftboaters are drooling over Obama. This I know.

J: OK, I'll go with your assessment of NH v. Mass. Why McCain, though? I'd think in the "Live Free or Die" state, 9u11iani or Fred would have a shot.

SC is going to go huge for Huckabee. I don't think 50% is out of the question. Fred should pull second there- the "true conservative" thing. They ain't votin' for no Mormon, and that damnyankee Rudy, well, he's not bad, but he'd be, at best, people's third choice.

SC Democrats like Edwards, he was born there and lives just across the border. And, he talks right. Obama will get a ton of the city vote (i.e. Columbia, Charleston, the Charlotte and Augusta suburbs), Edwards will pull in the country folk. I think Edwards has the edge. Remember, he won there in '04 over Kerry.

C: Julie-anny is a New Yorker. New Hampshire hates New Yorkers. It's why I learned early on to qualify my home as Upstate New York. Nh'erites despise and distrust big city types, and they also have read the press for years on end about what an arm-twisting thugocrat Rudy has been. And Fred's a fucking TV star, that dog don't hunt up there.

C. And before Bernie Kerick cuts a deal telling where the bodies of Rudolf's enemies are buried, I cannot see any scenario where Guiliani wins shit anywhere. Note: I'm completely behind having the cops shuttle my girlfriends, wives, future ex-wives, whores et. al. around town. But his 9-11 self-described imaginified heroics don't a nomination make. And the NYFD hates him and would feed him his balls given half the chance. His Florida strategy relies on senile ex-NY transplant colonostapy Snowbirds and caffiene-hopped up Cuban exiles who think Castro is hidin in the bushes. Or Bushes. Jeb hasn't said jacksquat. WTF? Rudy is toast. Or brushcetta.