Trends and Musings

J: Well, here's what we absolutely know for certain right now:

...

Now that that's out of the way, here's what I see, trend-wise:

On the GOP side, this is shaping up to be a three-man race. McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. If Fred doesn't win South Carolina, and I think he's going to be lucky to pull third there, he's done. He'll stay in the race 'til Super Tuesday, but I just get the sense that his heart was never in this thing. Rudy's going to get the first clue in how his strategy's working on the 29th, when Florida has their primary. I can see his logic, but I have serious doubts in this approach. I just can't see it working. Oh, and I think from here on out, Ron Paul will be fourth in every state. He'll pull his 5-10% and call it a day. In winner-take-all states, no problem. But, in case of a brokered convention- which is a distinct possibility- the Paul bloc could be in a position to put the Republican Party's platform through some very interesting changes.

The Democrats are in a three- person race, and the only thing I can see changing that would be Edwards dropping out and throwing his support behind Obama in exchange for another shot at the Vice-Presidency. And I don't see him doing that- at least, not until after Super Tuesday. Smilin' John should win in Carolina, and Florida won't
matter, as their delegates are in the same shape as Michigan's.

At least we get a little Saturday politics, courtesy of SC. Which is nice. Something to watch now that football season's over.

C: The only certainty is that there is no certainty. Thank goodness. It's why the primaries are like the playoffs, it's why you play the game.

I'm almost certain the Democratic Nevada debate sucked the life out of me like some politico-Succubus. I'm only just recovering.