New Hampshire

J: Well, it's big-time primary #2. Wyoming had a caucus a few days ago, nobody cared. But New Hampshire, well, there's a different story.

So far, the early polls are showing McCain winning the GOP by about 9%, and Obama running Hillary down by 13% or so. While that may be accurate, the same polls showed Obama and Clinton virtually dead even prior to Obama's convincing Iowa win. The discussion of land-line telephone polling's flaws in 2008, especially among younger voters, is a chat we'll have later, but for now I'll just say I expect it to be bigger than 13%.

Oh, and Ron Paul supporters are predicting a second- or third-place finish. I don't know if third's really out of the question, but I think the blimp-waving crew is going to get another fifth-place out of the deal.

We'll continue to monitor.

C: Technically, it's Primary #1. *ducks flying bottle*

Last three days of a campaign polling is just crap for information. And it's unnerving that before the actual thing where vote things are counted, Media has anointed Barack the Second Coming of a Kennedy and Hilary has been thrown under the bus. Why bother with voting if before the first primary if it's been decided who's been tapped with the magic wand? And good thing the rest of the country doesn't have to bother being engaged in the process...

But I still say the Mittster goes down because nobody in NH likes a rich tourist from Taxachusetts telling you what to do.

Today's X-factor: 50+ degree and partly sunny in New Hampshire. In January. This does not happen. Turnout will be huge.

NH Primary Humor factor: The Paulisitas chasing Sean Hannity down the street because FOX News banned Dr. RP from debating.

J: "Technically, it's Primary #1". Good point. Dammit. You knew what the hell I meant.

I think a heavy turnout will benefit Obama quite a bit. People love feeling like they're part of the winning team. Early polls can turn into self-fulfilling prophecies.

C: Human lemmings, like Green Bay Packers fans that miraculously swell to 300 million in the playoffs.

Maybe I'm just jealous because I don't get to play retail politics with potential presidents at the diner. And I imagine Californians, with the ummm 3rd or 5th or something largest economy in the world, are peeved that pipsqueek swell-headed Iowans and NH'erites run the show.

Anyway, if Huckabee has a good showing it will weird up the stew.

C: Revealing exit poll results while voting booths are still open should be a hanging offense.

J: I couldn't agree more. In the 80's, didn't some of the networks call the entire election for Reagan at something like 7 PM Eastern time? Or is that just a false memory on my part?

Also, ABC's reporting that turnout's so big, a few cities are worried about running out of ballots. My gut tells me people are breaking to Obama in huge numbers.

I could be wrong, but I just can't see a massive Romney, Thompson, and Paul surge.

C: I remember screaming at the TV when those chuckleheads singlehandedly suppressed the vote of the entire West Coast. Doesn't get mentioned with Reagan's 'landslide'. And then there's Florida...Murdoch calls Bush early, no wait Gore...ummm nevermind. Damage done. And tonight, "With 1% of precincts reporting, CNN (substitute MSNBC, FOX) calls NH for ________. It makes me insane.

Dude, don't say "Paul surge", that's just gross.

J: You prefer "Romney surge"?

C: A Paul victory, a Mitt win. Fine. "Surging" is just wrong in a bathhouse way.

And turnout is massive, it looks like the weather helped NH'erites surge to the polls.

J: With 12% in, CNN's showing Hillary with an 800 vote lead over Obama. They're projecting McCain on the GOP side, he's up large on Mitt. Giuliani has something like a three-vote lead on Paul for fourth.

C: My Political Statistics professor would have failed me, and maybe slapped me, for projecting anything with a 10% handful of precincts and 'exit polls' that are oh so accurately recorded by college students looking for beer and weed money. Exit polls? Have you ever been accosted by an exit poller? Most sane voters shove them to the ground, pesky Hare Krishnas who roam public squares have better people skills.

Regardless, a McCantankerous win makes the show messy. I dig messy. His 'Rocky' theme song is an entertaining touch.

C: Clinton vs. Obama. Pollsters and Media talking heads got no game. We'll discuss this in depth, but it's possible many Freshman College Chicks for Obama may be crying into their celebratory Garbage Can Punch late late tonight. And puking on their pillows, and holding each other's hair, only to wake to the brutal disappointment of America. Alright, that's harsh. But turnout just doesn't only mean 18-24's.

And note to punditry: People who do not go to rallies vote.