2.05.2008

Super Fat Tuesday

The Morning Report:

C: Well now. Here we are. America's almost national primary Day. Iowa and New Hampshire and their greedy egotistical retail politics are long gone. TV commercials, radio ads, comedy talk shows, attack radio, mailers, mailers, mailers and email spam rule the day. Here it is, three days after Wait In Line At The Grocery For Super Food Day, two days after the Super Bowl, the day after National Hangover Heartburn Day and now it's Fat Tuesday. Super Fat Tuesday.

Throw everything weekend poll-related out the window with some Mardi Gras beads. Check the weather report. It's really really important for turnout. The 800 pound gorilla in the room, early absentee voting in the Big States. And it's California, California, California. The Golden State has had little to no relevance in so long it will be interesting to see if they've noticed how important they have become this year. And will so-called youth turnout? History says no. We'll see. And shhhh remember the super-delegates can do whatever they want.

Here's your lock: New Mexico goes to Clinton. The former President hung out and watched the Superbowl with Governor Richardson over the weekend. Bill and Bill eating green chile chicken enchiladas and watching the game. New Mexico loves the Bill C. and Bill R., this will be important down the road. Richardson is Sec. of State or VP if Hilary gets the nod. Lock.

The Who Really Cares Factor: Will Limbaugh and Hannity attacking McCain as a liberal have any effect or are they simply last century's toothless barking dogs?

J: I will defer to your knowledge of New Mexico. This Super Tuesday will not determine much on the Democrat side. Proportional representation, rather than the winner-take-all system of the Republicans, pretty much guarantees that.

Speaking of the Republicans, McCain is showing the value of momentum. Huckabee's candidacy has gone downhill ever since Iowa- once people heard his views, he seems to have lost the public's interest. Mitt is who he is- the caricature of a politician. If Hollywood was casting a generic Republican, it would be Willard. The heavy Southern slant of today will be a nice little storyline- will it be an evangelical push for Huck, or will Johnny Mac bring in the military crowd? God and guns are both big in SEC territory, and both will overwhelm Mitt's "True Conservative" schtick. Oh, and Ron Paul will get his standard 5-10%... except possibly in Alaska, North Dakota, and Montana. The land of open real estate is the perfect place for his message to take hold. I've said it before, I'll say it again- if the Republican Party has a brokered convention, any Paul delegates have the potential to make the eventual nominee go through some strange contortions. It's a long shot at best, but I like to keep hope alive for any possible weirdness.

Romney should take Massachusetts, but has it been long enough for crestfallen Patriots fans to leave their homes? The weather may help determine turnout in most places, but clinical depression may be a factor in Pats country.

The Democrats are down to two, and their contest will be interesting. Judging by the polling data, what Obama really needs is about four more days. He is trending sharply upward across the board ever since his South Carolina victory (and The Speech). Hillary should win New York state, but I expect Barack to win NYC. California is a tougher call- I've seen numbers all over the board for both. If Hillary picks up 100 more delegates than Obama, the day has been a success for her. 50 and the race gets real interesting, real quick. If Obama gains more delegates than Hillary today, it might be time to start thinking of him as the front runner.

C: The lunchbag news: Huckabee is projected by CNN and MSNBC to win the West Virginia caucuses. Willard cannot be pleased with the Mountain State Biblethumpers' roundhouse kick. Reverend Mike is the thorn in Mitt's side and should add good ol' muckery if he doesn't bail before the convention.

I'll be curious to see if the NY Giants victory parade suppresses NYC turnout. Drunken celebrating football fans roaming the streets cannot be good for turnout.

Speaking of getting hammered, Wall Street is getting crushed again today. Everybody knows the poor get poorer. The middle class is feeling the mortgage mess. But when the rich get poorer, heads are going to roll.

The Early Evening Edition:

Georgia polls are closed. Let the Weirdness begin.

C: *tears out clump of hair* Projecting a winner with three precincts reporting from an entire state, filled with people, five seconds after the polls close, is insane and should be cause for tar and feathering.

It that a HuckaSurge in the Mason-Dixon wind?

The Evening Shakedown:

C: It's messy which is what we dig. Republican Georgia? Mizzou? Who knows.

And Democratic proportional delegate calculations may cause aneurysms.

J: The one thing that keeps on hitting me on this fine Tuesday Evening... look at the numbers. Look at the votes for the losing Democrat. They beat the Republican in every state other than Arkansas.

I think the Dems may have possibly motivated their base.

C: Ahhh J., my friend is the master of the understatement.

Conventional Wisdom keeps jabbing me in the ribs with its non-rocket science pointy stick. Look at the map. The classic, (for how many cycles now?), Southern Stategy, i.e. you must own the South to win the Presidency, has been blown apart. The times, they are a changin'.

C: Breaking Anecdotal Innuendo: Willard will be having "frank discussions" with his staff Wednesday according to MSNBC.

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