Super Repurcussions

J: The Democratic Party's delegate selection rules trend towards the arcane, but it appears that Obama outgained Hillary last night, to the 
tune of about 845 to 833, plus or minus four on each side. Momentum matters, and Hillary knows it. She also can't match Obama's money, and from here on out, Clinton has no more clear-cut "victory" states. To use a boxing analogy, she just threw her knockout punch, and Obama absorbed it. Hillary's campaign plan had to call for her winning New York, California, and Massachusetts big, and Obama had to know that. So, he took the best approach available- he tried to keep it competitive in those states, but did not strictly focus his energies there. This is smart, both for the primary and the general. As long as the Dems have a decent candidate, none of those three are going to vote Republican. So, Barack took his message into states like Missouri and Georgia, which will be more competitive for their electoral votes.

I think Hillary's wave may have peaked. Clinton needed to be seen as the eventual nominee by this point. Instead, she's just a viable candidate. I could be wrong, but I expect Senator Obama to start to pull away soon. This has everything to do with geography. Look at the rest of February: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, U.S. Virgin Islands, Maine, District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii, and Wisconsin all hold primaries or caucuses. I don't see a single state, district, or territory where Hillary can walk in and win easily. He has the momentum, he has the charisma, he has the money.

On the Republican side, apparently Willard had told his people that California was his "make or break" state. Getting beat by 8% in your "make or break" state will generally cause one to have one of those somber meetings with staff. Money may not be Mitt's problem, but even rich guys have to hate spending millions to get 34%. I think Romney and his well-groomed hair will be leaving us soon.

J: Late Breaking News:

Senator Clinton has loaned her campaign $5 million from her own bank account, and sources are reporting that some of her senior staff, including campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, are working this month without pay.

Rudy G may have set the precedent for poor campaigning, but Hillary is showing signs of following the same gameplan. Focus on the big states, ignore the small ones, go for the big delegates. If Clinton has a plan B, she must implement it soon- or this race will be out of her grasp quickly.

C: It may be a mistake to stick the fork in Clinton just yet. Delegate count is a wash after Fat Tuesday. Raw popular voter numbers are a wash. The Obama Kennedy/celebrity endorsement did not win either MA or CA, not even close. Super-delegates are establishment insiders which favors Hilary. If and when Florida and Michigan seat their delegates guess who gets them. The Clinton ground game in Big States is still alive. Caucuses-schmaucuses. If it goes down to Ohio, Texas, the Chesapeake cluster or Pennsylvania don't bet against the Senator from New York. And Obama has been put on the proverbial pedestal, expect the Media to start tearing him down as quickly as they built him up. And we haven't seen how she runs as a perceived underdog. This is too fluid for a momentum call said the counter-intuitive skeptic.

The HuckaSurge is going to HuckaSputter. He's running out of Evangelicans, it may be why Willard stays in the game. And side-splitting humor includes the Rabid Radio and TV/attack book/religion machines braying about McCain's liberalism.

Maybe it's just me but the pundits breaking down "exit polls" by race and gender is creeping me out.